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http://www.flatheadbeacon.com/articles/article/building_a_cottage_community/27162/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204443404577054151834036634.html

http://www.epropertysites.com/blogs/1221502138/8/Why-NOW-is-the-Time-to-Buy-or-Sell.html

Through October of 2011, the total number of residential sales were down slightly from 2010; this, despite the fact that the number of bank-owned and short sales increased.

These numbers can be attributed to an increase in the quantity of foreclosed homes to finally hit the market in 2011.  Although pre-foreclosure notices peaked in 2009, the number of foreclosed homes to hit the market continued to rise in 2011—at a rate of 17.5% over 2010 numbers.  As shadow inventories of bank and GSE (Government Sponsored Entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) REOs are gradually purged from the books, the prices for these distressed properties will continue to drop without an increase in demand, just as they did in 2011. (3% drop in the price of bank-owned sales, 13% drop in short sale offering prices) The bank and government-owned homes will continue to dominate the market for the time being.

There is good news on the horizon, however.  With an approximate 2 – 3 year lag between the first stages of default and the time it takes those foreclosures to hit the market, it appears that we may be near the bottom.  Pre-foreclosure recordings have fallen for the 2nd consecutive year, and at dramatic rates (currently down 39% from 2009).  Unlike the messes we’ve seen in major metropolitan areas throughout the country (of which the damage could take decades to undo), the distressed properties of the Flathead Valley have been quick to sell, as the area remains attractive to cash investors and those looking for vacation homes.   While this glut of distressed properties has frustrated sellers and diluted the market for new development, all signs seem to indicate that—relatively speaking—the Flathead Valley will be quick to recover.

Centering upon the emerging hub of Kalispell, and the tourist towns of Whitefish and Bigfork, the outlook for the Flathead Valley market looks much better than that of most the country.  Despite the recent market crash, one must keep in mind that the housing boom of the Flathead Valley happened to coincide with a dramatic economic boom:  From 2000 to 2010, Flathead County was the fastest growing county in Montana—growing at a rate of 22%.  Moreover, Kalispell’s population alone grew by over 40%, from roughly 14,000 in 2000, to nearly 20,000 in 2010.  Now, that doesn’t mean that the real estate market in the valley won’t continue to take a beating, because that’s hardly the case.   However, there’s a very real possibility that we could see a decrease in the number of foreclosure sales by 2012.  Given the lag between pre-foreclosure recordings and the sales of those foreclosed homes, the supply of bank and GSE REOs on the market should be near—if not at—peak numbers for the Flathead Valley; this cannot be said for a majority of the country, which, for a variety of reasons (longer foreclosure processes, continued economic downturn, metropolitan areas with massive shadow inventories) have yet to reach the bottom.  Granted, the supply of these distressed properties in the Flathead Valley is not going to disappear anytime soon, but it would not be the least bit surprising to see the market supply of these homes level off and even decrease within the next year.

As you know, and despite all the numbers and reports, there is no way to predict the real estate market without factoring in our economic outlook for 2012.  Dealing with a muddled political landscape in an election year, it’s anyone’s guess as to what the future holds.  If the recession worsens, there’ll be many more distressed properties to hit the market, as those already struggling to make mortgage payments will surely default.  If the economy picks up, and/or lending resumes, the supply of distressed properties on the market should decrease at a rate greater than anticipated.  If our economy remains status quo, we will have to deal with current realities: That is, distressed properties will continue to control, but their control will gradually diminish within the next few years, maybe as soon as 2012.

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Last weekend, I played in the last golf tournament of the year at Eagle Bend. It’s appropriately named The World’s Hardest with tee boxes moved back to never-never-land and pin placements in the ugliest, meanest locations. It was an absolute HOOT! I highly recommend it to anyone with a sense of adventure and humor. At the end of the day, after a grueling 6 hours of play, we gathered inside the clubhouse to celebrate our survival and I realized, once again, how very lucky I am to live here in Bigfork, MT. Smiling faces, laughter, the camaraderie of friends. It all makes you realize how important that is. Look, right now, we all know the world is not the way anyone would like it to be. Our economy is suffering. Our real estate market is aching. We all wish it would be cured soon, but until then, I can’t think of a better place to be than in Bigfork to be dealing with all this. We do have such a caring special community here, and that is so important. Wherever you are, my friend, look around you. Remember that if you have a roof over your head, food on the table, the love of friends and family, your health and a place to try to earn a living, you are far better off than so many people in the world. The name of the game is “holding power”. Let’s do this together!

• First of all, we had a long, long winter only to head into a spring that simply would not stop raining. I think our first warm sunny day was in July, and even that was sporadic. Being the eternal optimist, I can only hope for an Indian summer… We can claim having more temperate weather compared to so many areas of our country with scorching, fire-prone, summer weather.

• The gas prices rose significantly over last year’s prices. With Glacier National Park just an hour and a half from Bigfork Village, we have a bulk of tourists who travel by vehicle to our area instead of flying in. The drop in numbers of road travellers impacts our entire state’s economy.

• What I feel is the most significant impact is the loss of consumer confidence stemming from our national malaise. With the 2012 elections upcoming, who can foretell the barometer reading of consumer confidence during this time?

Flathead Lake is a huge draw to our area. As of August 25, 2011, there were 130 active residential (non-condo/townhome) waterfront listing on Flathead Lake. Five were under contract at the time of this report. There were 16 closings, of which 25% were lender-owned. The total sales are down 7% over last year but more importantly the sold volume (dollars) is down 21% and average sales price is down 15%.

Eagle Bend/Harbor Village properties currently on the market as of September 5, 2011, total 33 of which 3 are under contract at this time. There have been only three closings as of this writing, when last year we had closed 7 properties by this same timeframe.

Greater Bigfork, which includes Echo Lake, Woods Bay and Swan Lake areas, is showing a 13% drop in sales over the previous year in residential, non-waterfront, properties and a 26% drop in the waterfront properties. The sold dollar volume is down overall at 27%.

Flathead Valley, which includes Kalispell, Columbia Falls, Lakeside/Somers, Whitefish and Bigfork areas is showing a 6% drop in the number of units sold; a 10% drop in the dollar volume; and a 4% drop in the average sale price.

Foreclosures, covering the same market areas above, show 119 residences on the market, of which 28 are under contract as of this writing. There have been 688 residential closings since January 1, 2011, to date, of which 227 were foreclosed, lender-owned, homes, or 33% of the total sales.

Of course, I am not trying to depress my readers. Relative to many parts of the country, we are holding fairly well. We have been fortunate with a good number of Canadian buyers coming into our market. Unlike most of the American tourists who leave our area in September, Canadian visits are more extended; coming in early in the season and continuing well into late fall. This can greatly improve our numbers by year’s end.

The Flathead Valley continues to be a desirable place to live or invest in due to the five major items sought by the increasing numbers of Baby Boomers: 1) low crime rate; 2) great medical facilities; 3) easy access to resort and recreational opportunities; 4) an international airport; and 5) a strong sense of community.

I have also noticed that there has been a surge of new businesses that have come into Bigfork Village: a Montana Sapphire jeweler; a charming breakfast/lunch place; a fresh fruits, vegetables and flowers shop, even a martini bar, amongst others. In fact, I just read in the Daily Interlake newspaper this morning that Kalispell is experience a resurgence of new restaurants.

Yes, these are hard times out there, but we are so very fortunate to live in a naturally beautiful setting and in a community that cares about its people. Our market won’t turn around tomorrow, but we are holding our own and will see better times ahead.

Until next time,

Joyce

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